Performance of Trajectory Models with Wind Uncertainty

Typical aircraft trajectory predictors use wind forecasts but do not account for the forecast uncertainty. A method for generating estimates of wind prediction uncertainty is described and its effect on aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty is investigated. The procedure for estimating the wind prediction uncertainty relies uses a time-lagged ensemble of weather model forecasts from the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather prediction system. Forecast uncertainty is estimated using measures of the spread amongst various RUC time-lagged ensemble forecasts. This proof of concept study illustrates the estimated uncertainty and the actual wind errors, and documents the validity of the assumed ensemble-forecast accuracy relationship. Aircraft trajectory predictions are made using RUC winds with provision for the estimated uncertainty. Results for a set of simulated flights indicate this simple approach effectively translates the wind uncertainty estimate into an aircraft trajectory uncertainty. A key strength of the method is the ability to relate uncertainty to specific weather phenomena (contained in the various ensemble members) allowing identification of regional variations in uncertainty

Radio Astronomy

Contains reports on three research projects.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NGL 22-009-016)National Science Foundation (Grant GP-8415)Joint Services Electronics Programs (U. S. Army, U.S. Navy, and U. S. Air Force) under Contract DA 28-043-AMC-02536(E

Dealing with Uncertainties in Asteroid Deflection Demonstration Missions: NEOTwIST

Deflection missions to near-Earth asteroids will encounter non-negligible uncertainties in the physical and orbital parameters of the target object. In order to reliably assess future impact threat mitigation operations such uncertainties have to be quantified and incorporated into the mission design. The implementation of deflection demonstration missions offers the great opportunity to test our current understanding of deflection relevant uncertainties and their consequences, e.g., regarding kinetic impacts on asteroid surfaces. In this contribution, we discuss the role of uncertainties in the NEOTwIST asteroid deflection demonstration concept, a low-cost kinetic impactor design elaborated in the framework of the NEOShield project. The aim of NEOTwIST is to change the spin state of a known and well characterized near-Earth object, in this case the asteroid (25143) Itokawa. Fast events such as the production of the impact crater and ejecta are studied via cube-sat chasers and a flyby vehicle. Long term changes, for instance, in the asteroid's spin and orbit, can be assessed using ground based observations. We find that such a mission can indeed provide valuable constraints on mitigation relevant parameters. Furthermore, the here proposed kinetic impact scenarios can be implemented within the next two decades without threatening Earth's safety.Comment: Accepted for publication in the proceedings of the IAUS 318 - Asteroids: New Observations, New Models, held at the IAU General Assembly in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA 201

Comparison of transcranial electric motor and somatosensory evoked potential monitoring during cervical spine surgery.

BACKGROUND: There has been little enthusiasm for somatosensory evoked potential monitoring in cervical spine surgery as a result, in part, of the increased risk of motor tract injury at this level, to which somatosensory monitoring may be insensitive. Transcranial electric motor evoked potential monitoring allows assessment of the motor tracts; therefore, we compared transcranial electric motor evoked potential and somatosensory evoked potential monitoring during cervical spine surgery to determine the temporal relationship between the changes in the potentials demonstrated by each type of monitoring and neurological sequelae and to identify patient-related and surgical factors associated with intraoperative neurophysiological changes. METHODS: Somatosensory evoked potential and transcranial electric motor evoked potential data recorded for 427 patients undergoing anterior or posterior cervical spine surgery between January 1999 and March 2001 were analyzed. All patients who showed substantial (at least 60%) or complete unilateral or bilateral amplitude loss, for at least ten minutes, during the transcranial electric motor evoked potential and/or somatosensory evoked potential monitoring were identified. RESULTS: Twelve of the 427 patients demonstrated substantial or complete loss of amplitude of the transcranial electric motor evoked potentials. Ten of those patients had complete reversal of the loss following prompt intraoperative intervention, whereas two awoke with a new motor deficit. Somatosensory evoked potential monitoring failed to identify any change in one of the two patients, and the change in the somatosensory evoked potentials lagged behind the change in the transcranial electric motor evoked potentials by thirty-three minutes in the other. No patient showed loss of amplitude of the somatosensory evoked potentials in the absence of changes in the transcranial electric motor evoked potentials. Transcranial electric motor evoked potential monitoring was 100% sensitive and 100% specific, whereas somatosensory evoked potential monitoring was only 25% sensitive; it was, however, 100% specific. CONCLUSIONS: Transcranial electric motor evoked potential monitoring appears to be superior to conventional somatosensory evoked potential monitoring for identifying evolving motor tract injury during cervical spine surgery. Surgeons should strongly consider using this modality when operating on patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy in general and on those with ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament in particular

Vertical sleeve gastrectomy improves ventilatory drive through a leptin-dependent mechanism

Obesity hypoventilation syndrome (OHS) is a serious disorder characterized by daytime hypercapnia, disordered breathing, and a reduction in chemosensitivity. Vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG), a bariatric surgical procedure resulting in weight loss and weight-independent improvements in glucose metabolism, has been observed to substantially improve sleep-disordered breathing. However, it is unclear if the ventilatory effects of VSG are secondary to weight loss or the marked change in metabolic physiology. Using preclinical mouse models, we found that VSG leads to an improvement in the hypercapnic ventilatory response (HCVR) and reductions in circulating leptin levels independent of reductions in body mass, fat mass, and caloric intake. In the absence of leptin, VSG continues to improve body mass, fat mass, and glucose tolerance in ob/ob mice but no longer affects HCVR. However, the HCVR of ob/ob mice can be returned to wild-type levels with leptin treatment. These data demonstrate that VSG improves chemosensitivity and ventilatory drive via a leptin-dependent mechanism. Clinically, these data downgrade the relative contribution of physical, mechanical load in the pathogenesis of OHS, and instead point to physiological components of obesity, including alterations in leptin signaling, as key drivers in OHS

The Fourier Imaging X-ray Spectrometer (FIXS) for the Argentinian, Scout-launched satelite de Aplicaciones Cienficas-1 (SAC-1)

The Fourier Imaging X-ray Spectrometer (FIXS) is one of four instruments on SAC-1, the Argentinian satellite being proposed for launch by NASA on a Scout rocket in 1992/3. The FIXS is designed to provide solar flare images at X-ray energies between 5 and 35 keV. Observations will be made on arcsecond size scales and subsecond time scales of the processes that modify the electron spectrum and the thermal distribution in flaring magnetic structures

Flat Lens Focusing Demonstrated With Left-Handed Metamaterial

Left-handed metamaterials (LHM's) are a new media engineered to possess an effective negative index of refraction over a selected frequency range. This characteristic enables LHM's to exhibit physical properties never before observed. In particular, a negative index of refraction should cause electromagnetic radiation to refract or bend at a negative angle when entering an LHM, as shown in the figure above on the left. The figure on the right shows that this property could be used to bring radiation to a focus with a flat LHM lens. The advantage of a flat lens in comparison to a conventional curved lens is that the focal length could be varied simply by adjusting the distance between the lens and the electromagnetic wave source. In this in-house work, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center developed a computational model for LHM's with the three-dimensional electromagnetic commercial code Microwave Studio, constructed an LHM flat lens, and used it to experimentally demonstrate the reversed refraction and flat lens focusing of microwave radiation

Sleep apnea predicts distinct alterations in glucose homeostasis and biomarkers in obese adults with normal and impaired glucose metabolism

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Notwithstanding previous studies supporting independent associations between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and prevalence of diabetes, the underlying pathogenesis of impaired glucose regulation in OSA remains unclear. We explored mechanisms linking OSA with prediabetes/diabetes and associated biomarker profiles. We hypothesized that OSA is associated with distinct alterations in glucose homeostasis and biomarker profiles in subjects with normal (NGM) and impaired glucose metabolism (IGM).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Forty-five severely obese adults (36 women) without certain comorbidities/medications underwent anthropometric measurements, polysomnography, and blood tests. We measured fasting serum glucose, insulin, selected cytokines, and calculated homeostasis model assessment estimates of insulin sensitivity (HOMA-IS) and pancreatic beta-cell function (HOMA-B).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both increases in apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and the presence of prediabetes/diabetes were associated with reductions in HOMA-IS in the entire cohort even after adjustment for sex, race, age, and BMI (<it>P </it>= 0.003). In subjects with NGM (n = 30), OSA severity was associated with significantly increased HOMA-B (a trend towards decreased HOMA-IS) independent of sex and adiposity. OSA-related oxyhemoglobin desaturations correlated with TNF-α (r=-0.76; <it>P </it>= 0.001) in women with NGM and with IL-6 (rho=-0.55; <it>P </it>= 0.035) in women with IGM (n = 15) matched individually for age, adiposity, and AHI.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>OSA is independently associated with altered glucose homeostasis and increased basal beta-cell function in severely obese adults with NGM. The findings suggest that moderate to severe OSA imposes an excessive functional demand on pancreatic beta-cells, which may lead to their exhaustion and impaired secretory capacity over time. The two distinct biomarker profiles linking sleep apnea with NGM and IGM via TNF-α and IL-6 have been discerned in our study to suggest that sleep apnea and particularly nocturnal oxyhemoglobin desaturations are associated with chronic metabolic fluxes and specific cytokine stressors that reflect links between sleep apnea and glucose metabolism. The study may help illuminate potential mechanisms for glucose dysregulation in OSA, and resolve some controversy over the associations of OSA with TNF-α and IL-6 in previous studies.</p

Oxyhemoglobin Saturation Overshoot Following Obstructive Breathing Events Mitigates Sleep Apnea-Induced Glucose Elevations

Background: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and nocturnal hypoxia are associated with disturbances in glucose regulation and diabetes. Temporal associations between OSA, oxygenation profiles and glucose have not been well-described. We hypothesized that oxyhemoglobin desaturation during apneic events and subsequent post-apnea saturation overshoot predict nocturnal glucose.Methods: In 30 OSA patients who underwent polysomnography while subjected to CPAP withdrawal, we characterized SPO2 swings by frequency, desaturation depth, and overshoot height relative to baseline. We examined the associations between frequently sampled glucose and SPO2 swings during the preceding 10 min. We developed multi-variable mixed effects linear regression to examine the independent associations between glucose and each level of these SPO2 swings, while controlling for OSA severity.Results: Desaturation depth was not associated with glucose (p &gt; 0.05). In contrast, overshoot was associated with glucose in a dose-dependent manner. Each SPO2 peak that did not rise to within 1% of baseline was associated with incremental glucose elevations of 0.49 mg/dL (p = 0.01), whereas peaks that exceeded baseline by &gt;1% were associated with glucose reductions of 0.46 mg/dL. Overshoot remained an independent predictor of glucose after adjustment for mean SPO2 and OSA severity (p &gt; 0.05).Conclusions: Vigorous SPO2 improvements after apneic events may protect patients against OSA-related glucose elevations

The Ursinus Weekly, October 14, 1976

Ursinus news in brief: Parsons admitted to Sacred Heart ; Reiner, Bozorth receive awards; Grant supports psych research; Staskiel to make TV debut • Freshmen elect officers • Nine join faculty • USGA holds carnival • Economics club meets • Ursinus and the arts • Another look at alumni • Coming campus events • WPAZ offers intern program • Harriers surging • LV, Johns Hopkins beat Karas\u27 Bears • Sixers: ready for all new NBA • Saturday\u27s gamehttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/weekly/1058/thumbnail.jp